Mental Models That Actually Work: 40 Thinking Tools from Munger, Bezos, Feynman, and Kahneman, Tested Against the Evidence, for Clearer Thinking and Better Decisions
English | October 11, 2026 | ASIN: B0HKYJRWMN | 300 pages | Epub | 385.40 KB
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." There's no record Charlie Munger ever said it. It isn't in either version of the famous speech it's credited to.Mental model books hand you a list of clever tools and famous names. Few of them tell you where each tool really came from, whether anyone ever tested it, or when to use it instead of another one.Mental Models That Actually Work does all three. It takes 40 thinking tools used by investors, engineers, scientists, and forecasters, traces each one to its source, and checks what the research says. Every tool carries an evidence badge:SOLID: tested on people more than once, and it held upPROMISING: real evidence, but small, indirect, or not repeated yetSTORY ONLY: a real practice with a real track record, never put to a controlled testInside you'll find:First principles, inversion, and Chesterton's fence, with the original sourcesThe outside view, calibration, and keeping score, the habits behind the best forecastersConsider-the-opposite and the pre-mortem, and what the studies really measuredBezos's one-way and two-way doors, regret, satisficing, and the 37% rule, in their proper placeChecklists and if-then plans, one of the best-tested habits in psychologyIncentives, the wisdom of crowds, and why real dissent beats a devil's advocateA one-page Decision Selector, a 30-day plan, and Decision Log pagesNo made-up quotes. Every source is listed, so you can check it yourself.Use the tool, not the legend.
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